Are They That Stupid? Or That Smart?
What exactly is March 14th doing lately? You can't but stop and wonder how they are functioning lately.
About a month ago, the Tripoli Bloc announced that they won't participate in electing a new president unless two thirds of the MPs attend the Parliamentary session!
Two days ago, MP Walid Junbulatt announced a "clear threat" to his March 14th partners!
And now that the presidential race has started, already two MPs from March 14th (Botrous Harb and Robert Ghanem) have declared themselves as candidates! While the list of the March 14th Christian wings is a long one, all wanting to become the next president (Nayla Mouwad, Naseeb Lahoud,...etc).
So what exactly is going on there? Did March 14th alliance really broke up? Are they that stupid? Everybody knows that if the next president is to be from March 14th, he/she should have the full support of at least the whole March 14th alliance, if he/she is to defeat good strong candidates such as General Suleiman, The Orange General and Riad Salameh. How can any of them stood a chance if he/she run on his/her own???!!! It is like giving the presidency to others on a silver plate!!!
But then again, March 14th has been a solid alliance ever since it was established, and this alliance was tested so many times in the last couple of years, and they showed an admired solidarity, and ability to stay united against all odds. So are they that smart that they are making us believe they are divided, only to show up in the end united as ever??!
The theory is simple yet complicated! You see, March 14th is trying to give the illusion that they are NOT united over one candidate for presidency. Such illusion will encourage March 8th (and especially the Orange General, who has the support of March 8th, though it hasn't been an official one yet) to actually attend the presidential electoral session, thinking that they can win easily over the divided March 14th. Once the two thirds quorum is available, no one would be able to deny legitimacy of such session.
During the first round, several March 14th, March 8th and other candidates will participate in the race. Needless to say, none will gain the two thirds of the votes needed to be elected the new president. Which means that we will move to the second round, where the president is elected by absolute majority.
About a month ago, the Tripoli Bloc announced that they won't participate in electing a new president unless two thirds of the MPs attend the Parliamentary session!
Two days ago, MP Walid Junbulatt announced a "clear threat" to his March 14th partners!
And now that the presidential race has started, already two MPs from March 14th (Botrous Harb and Robert Ghanem) have declared themselves as candidates! While the list of the March 14th Christian wings is a long one, all wanting to become the next president (Nayla Mouwad, Naseeb Lahoud,...etc).
So what exactly is going on there? Did March 14th alliance really broke up? Are they that stupid? Everybody knows that if the next president is to be from March 14th, he/she should have the full support of at least the whole March 14th alliance, if he/she is to defeat good strong candidates such as General Suleiman, The Orange General and Riad Salameh. How can any of them stood a chance if he/she run on his/her own???!!! It is like giving the presidency to others on a silver plate!!!
But then again, March 14th has been a solid alliance ever since it was established, and this alliance was tested so many times in the last couple of years, and they showed an admired solidarity, and ability to stay united against all odds. So are they that smart that they are making us believe they are divided, only to show up in the end united as ever??!
The theory is simple yet complicated! You see, March 14th is trying to give the illusion that they are NOT united over one candidate for presidency. Such illusion will encourage March 8th (and especially the Orange General, who has the support of March 8th, though it hasn't been an official one yet) to actually attend the presidential electoral session, thinking that they can win easily over the divided March 14th. Once the two thirds quorum is available, no one would be able to deny legitimacy of such session.
During the first round, several March 14th, March 8th and other candidates will participate in the race. Needless to say, none will gain the two thirds of the votes needed to be elected the new president. Which means that we will move to the second round, where the president is elected by absolute majority.
And right there, all March 14th candidates will withdraw for the favor of ONE of them, who will easily win the half + one majority needed to be named the new president, and kick the rest of the candidates out of the race!
Indeed, this is ingenious, but the question remains; Are March 14th really that smart? And will they be able to fool March 8th and their wanna-be-president-at-all-costs-orange-general? Or are they that stupid that they are really divided, and they are about to loose everything they worked so hard for for the last couple of years? Only time will tell......
Posted by
FaiLaSooF
9 comments:
Talking of presidential elections, I have not seen your presidential countdown clock ticking lately.
ms levantine,
it's still ticking dear...on the top right corner of teh blog...just give it some time to appear (inetrnet connection speed problems i think). less than 100 days left till we gain our presidency back :)
My bet is on "stupid".
Hezbo and Aoun won't be there unless they know the result and without them: no election (thanks to Justice Sfeir's 2/3 quorum delusion which M14 bought into).
joseywales,
what makes you think Ha and the orange general won't fall for a perfect March 14th set-up? Or maybe HA doesn't want Aoun a president after all, remember that till now, HA nor Amal has named Aoun their candidate, right?
Faila
I don't believe for one second Hezbo wants Aoun.
However M14 has blundered with everything so far, and now thanks to the 2/3 veto handed to M8 by Sfeir, M8 will have to agree on the next guy who will have to be a weakling or a pro-Syrian.
There will be no set up, M8 will not be there (no 2/3 quorum) without guarantees of the outcome.
"The theory is simple yet complicated! You see, March 14th is trying to give the illusion that they are NOT united over one candidate for presidency. Such illusion will encourage March 8th (and especially the Orange General, who has the support of March 8th, though it hasn't been an official one yet) to actually attend the presidential electoral session, thinking that they can win easily over the divided March 14th. Once the two thirds quorum is available, no one would be able to deny legitimacy of such session."
March 14 might be that smart, but I doubt March 8 + FPM are that dumb.
Ba3dena Aoun has some weird way of convincing his followers that only stuff they win are legitimate, so even if this happens he will find a way to deny the legitimacy of the session ma tkhaf 3leh!
Well i thought about it too, but i think that the president will be elected on the first round (the one that requires a two third quorum) or not at all...
eliedh,
Knowing that HA and amal might not keep their part of the deal, believing he could win the electoral race over the divided March 14th, and his endless desire for the chair..... Yeah, I think such plot can really work and he could fall for it!
bob,
what matters is that the two thirds quorum is provided...whatever happens next is the real game...that's what i think....
I don't think March 14 hold such intelligence as the one you describe.
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