Always in Our Minds....

Monday, September 11, 2006

Yet Another Scary Scenario

I spent the weekend in the North. We went to Ehden to enjoy a traditional "Kebbe Nayye" meal yesterday. And as usual, we won't disappointed as we enjoyed the best that nature can offer of food, drinks and amazing views.

Aside from that, I couldn't help but noticing that rumors of a new scenario are being heavily propaganded in the last couple of days. Rumors say that the international community had set its mind on disarming HA. And that Seniora's government were giving a chance, then Israel was authorized to eliminate HA by force, but the two attempts faced a horrible failure. So, who is capapable of disarming HA? No one but the Syrians, who would happily accept going back to Lebanon and get rid of HA in exchange of cleaning Syria's name form any relation to Hariri's Assassination, specially that reports say that Syria is to be condemned in the international court that is being prepared as we speak. Of course, such rumors are being strongly supported by pro-Syrians who says that this is their golden opportunity to re-gain the control they lost last year.

Would that actually happen? Taking into consideration what happened almost 16 years ago, when Syria was given a green light to eliminate General Aoun's forces and gain full control over Lebanon, as a reward for Syria contributions in the 1990 Gulf war? No body knows for sure.....

1 comment:

LebExile said...

It is not only unlikely - almost certainly impossible for this to happen..

The US has had Syria cornered for the last year, there is no way they are going to offer them Lebanon - they want to diminish Syrian power, not enhance it.

Just like Iran, Syria will be isolated for months, if not years until their economy totally collapses. I think it would take months and not years by the way.

The only power Syria has currently is their control over terrorists - wither those in Lebanon, Palestine, or the armed gangs in Syrian camps or the Palestinian camps in Lebanon.

The whole point of the UNIFL force is the address this problem. Their mission is to eliminate all armed groups in Lebanon - wait for the next resolution - why do you think they are delaying it - the next resolution wont be passed until there are sufficient troops on the ground to enforce it - their mission is going to be to disarm all armed militias in Lebanon, as well as to strengthen the Lebanese armed forces and security services.

They will probably monitor the borders very throughly to ensure that no arms and militants are crossing the border.

Ultimately, it will be up to the Lebanese - do they want to have control over their country or not, do they want to have a strong army that can defend her people or not...

The Cedar revolution of last year was a historic turning point for Lebanon - I suspect that the Shia were there in spirit, and were probably coerced in staying home and/or supporting the March 8 movement, however, it seems hizbollah is losing it's grip on the Shia's and that could only be a good thing.