Always in Our Minds....

Monday, January 29, 2007

Good Outcome In The End?

Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah had a speech last night. As usual, his political rivals were accused (for the 100000000 time) of being Israeli agents whom their primary objective is to destroy Liban and surrender to the American and their Israeli allies. He also emphasized on HA divine role in protecting Liban from those who are trying to change its identity, steal its resources and kill its people. Nothing new in that, for sure he was more than successful and extremely charismatic in driving people over the edge shouting all in one voice "Labbayka Nasrallah" "We're all for you Nasrallah".

But, he was very clear in "inhibiting" his supporters from any kind of violent act against other Lebanese. He was very clear in this that he actually used the words "I kiss you hands, please do not use violence against fellow Lebanese". He also emphasized that it is the "State's role" to catch those who killed the innocent people and make sure that justice will prevail in the end. For that, I can't but to thank Sayyed Nasrallah; at least he admits that there's a state that should take control and be in charge.

His speech -though was full of the usual "you are traitors, and we are the pure ones"- had a good outcome in that he was very clear in ordering people NOT to use violence.

But, why did Nasrallah do that? Now there can be many reasons but I think there are two main reasons why he chose to calm things down:

1) He is having troubles controlling his followers; I've never heard him "begging" or shall I say "asking" his supporters NOT to do something. He always used to just tell them what to do and what not to do, and they used to just listen to him. So why, all of a sudden, he decides to declare "Fatwa" "A religious order" to make people calm down and not go to violent acts? Maybe he felt that it is better to keep things under control rather than loosing HA biggest advantage, its supporters' complete obedience.

2) He realized that any more escalation would lead to a change in the way the pro-government parties are behaving. While HA can easily control his territories, he realized that its allies (Aoun, Franjeih, Arslan and Karame) don't have that much of an influence, and an escalation in the North, Mount Liban can't be controlled, specially with the reaction from the pro-government forces, and their clear intention NOT to accept farther escalation like the one that took place last Tuesday.

The government did an outstanding job at Paris-3, and it won't be in the opposition best interest to declare another civil disobedience, for it will give March 14th the chance to claim that while they are trying to get the economy back on its feet, the opposition is just killing it for good.

But where does that lead us? What will happen next? March 14th seems to be more determined, and there are voices calling for the Downtown protest to come to an end, and that a parliament session or another "negotiating table" should be arranged for all parties to sit and talk things over, so that the economy can have a chance to revive. It also seems that the Saudi-Iranian negotiations are going on the right track, which will "inhibit" any farther escalation from the opposition's side. But let us NOT fool ourselves; that doesn't mean that the conflict is over yet.

You see, the main goal out of this struggle is very clear; it is the presidential elections. All parties know that unless the government and the opposition reach an understanding regarding who the next president will be, there will be no elections, and the authorities of the president will be transferred to the government. That's why HA and the rest of the opposition group are trying their best NOT to let this government see that day, and it is the same reason why March 14th are trying NOT to let things escalate any farther, because they know that if they wanna be in charge, this government must hold on till the presidential elections.

What will happen next? Well, it seems like a boxing heavy weight championship match, and the two sides are trying their best to hold on and wait for the other side to fall apart first. And at this stage of the match, it is too damn early to decide who would win.

One thing we can be sure of, we won't have a true peace of mind till the presidential elections issue is cleared out. Only then will the rising conflict come to an end. And the only losers till then are us, the Lebanese suffering to survive.

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