Situation Analysis

Being obliged to watch TV to keep updated with what's going on in Lebanon nowadays, one can't help but to feel anxious about the future of this country.

In an interview with Alarabiya network, Syrian parliament member, Mr. Habach said that Syria is a regional player, and that should not be denied. When he was asked about what Syria could offer to end the conflict in Lebanon, Mr. Habach mentioned that if the Syrian troops were still deployed in Lebanon, Israel wouldn't have had the guts to attack Lebanon in such a brutal way. It seems that Syria is implying that if she is to play a role in ending the conflict, she needs to be paid. Syria obviously still wants to gain its influence back in Lebanon, and she's trying to seize the chance to get advantage of the latest events so that it comes back to play an important regional role. Mr. Habach said that the Syrian view to bring an end to this situation is a total solution that takes into consideration a sustainable peace agreement involving an independent Palestinian state, and an Israeli withdrawal from Golan Heights.

In the famous LBCI talk show kalam elnass, Dr. Samir Jaajaa said that March 14th movement has a lot to say, but now it's neither the time nor the place to start such a debate. Dr. Jaajaa stated that the LF, together with the rest of the parties on March 14th movement, are supporting PM Seniora's 7-point-plan to end this conflict. He believes that an international forces deployed in southern Lebanon is the most suitable way to defend Lebanon against future Israeli attacks; because such forces will have the authority to sustain a respect to the blue line, even if that meant the use of military power to prevent Israel from farther attacks against Lebanon, and vice versa. When he was asked about what he thinks about those who say that an international forces in Lebanon would only help Israel to disarm Hezbollah, causing Lebanon to be under American and Israeli influence, Dr. Jaajaa was very pragmatic in saying that at the moment, the only way we can prevent Israel from invading Lebanon again would be an international forces, specially that neither the Lebanese army nor Hezbollah (with everything Hezbollah is trying to do) has the ability to play such a role.

Obviously, Lebanon is once again a backyard for regional and international forces conflicts. Everybody wants to gain something out of this situation. Israel wants to get rid of Hezbollah's continuous thread, USA dreams about a new Middle East with a total American influence, Syria is trying to re-gain its traditional regional role (specially in Lebanon), Iran is trying to show its huge influence in the region, and get advantage of that in its nuclear conflict, and France wants to re-gain its influence in the region. And once again, it is Lebanon and the Lebanese who are the only losers of the whole situation.

Where are we heading from here? Is Lebanon going back to be under Syrian influence? Can March 14th movement gain the initiative back after the conflict is subsided? What is the future of Hezbollah? Would the Lebanese government accept NOT to have the decision of peace or war again? Who would compensate for the huge destruction in Lebanon? And will this dilemma happen again in a few years of time, or this is the beginning of the end?